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Future population

Download the current population projections.

The latest population projections for Herefordshire are the 2016-based Subnational population projections (SNPPs), published 24 May 2018 by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Based on the ONS’ 2016 mid-year estimates, the future population is projected forward by ageing on the population and applying observed trends in relation to births, deaths and migration, year on year, up to 2041.

The current projections suggest slower growth than the previous (2014-based) projections. This is because of assumptions about lower future levels of fertility and international migration, and an assumption of a slower rate of increase in life expectancy.

The total population of Herefordshire is projected to increase from 189,500 people in 2016 to 194,100 by 2021 (an increase of two per cent); and to 203,700 people by 2036 (an increase of seven per cent), equivalent to an average annual growth of 0.35 per cent per year over this 20-year period. This is a lower projected annual rate of growth than England as a whole (0.5 per cent per year).

These projections serve as a baseline scenario; they do not attempt to predict the impact that future government or local policies (such as on housing development), changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour.

Predicted population growth in Herefordshire
Source: ONS population estimates and sub-national population projections; GL Hearn for Herefordshire Council.



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Last updated: Friday, June 15, 2018