Future population

Download the current population projections.

Demographic-led projections

The latest population projections for Herefordshire are the 2014-based Subnational population projections (SNPPs), published 25 May 2016 by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Based on the ONS’ 2014 mid-year estimates, the future population is projected forward by ageing on the population and applying observed trends in relation to births, deaths and migration, year on year, up to 2039.

The total population of Herefordshire is projected to increase from 187,200 people in 2014 to 192,300 by 2019 (an increase of three per cent); and to 205,600 people by 2034 (an increase of ten per cent), equivalent to an average annual growth of 0.5 per cent per year over this 20-year period. This is a lower projected annual rate of growth than England as a whole (0.7 per cent per year).

These projections serve as a baseline scenario; they do not attempt to predict the impact that future government or local policies (such as on housing development), changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour.

Jobs-led projections

In May 2014, the council commissioned GL Hearn to assess the impact of projected economic growth on the preceding 2012-based SNPPs to ascertain whether the proposed 16,500 new dwellings between 2011 and 2031 in the current version of the Local Plan would be enough to meet the projected level of economic and demographic growth. The study found that between 14,400 and 15,500 new houses would be required between 2011 and 2031 based on various demographic scenarios.

Separate projections were produced which factor in independent projections about future growth in the number of jobs locally and what it could mean in terms of migration to the area.

The chart below shows how the current 2014-based SNPPs compare with the former demographic and jobs-led projections as well as the observed population growth since 2001. The former 2012-based SNPPs show a similar rate of growth. Under the two jobs-led scenarios, the population would grow to either 205,5001 by 2034 (i.e. similar to the most recent demographic trend scenario) or to 208,0002.

Predicted population growth in Herefordshire
Projections
Source: ONS population estimates and sub-national population projections; GL Hearn for Herefordshire Council.


[1] Economic forecasts produced by Oxford Econometrics in 2014, which predicted 400 new jobs a year.

[2] Economic forecasts produced by Experian in spring 2014, which predicted 450 new jobs a year.

 

Population projections

  • Herefordshire Population Projection (2014-based)Herefordshire Population Projection (2014-based)
  • Population projection for the county of Herefordshire to 2039 based on the Office for National Statistics' 2014 mid-year estimate of population. Source: 2014-based Subnational population projections. Office for National Statistics © Crown copyright 2016.
  • 173 Kb
  • Herefordshire Population Projection (2012-based)Herefordshire Population Projection (2012-based)
  • Population projection for the county of Herefordshire to 2036 based on the Office for National Statistics' 2012 mid-year estimate of population. Source: GL Hearn for Herefordshire Council; based on ONS indicative 2012 mid-year estimates.
  • 175 Kb
 

Last updated: Tuesday, August 23, 2016