Growing population
According to Office for National Statistics (ONS) mid-year population estimates, Herefordshire's population grew by 4.8% between 2011 and 2025. This was lower than the 10.4% growth recorded across England and Wales.
Growth is entirely dependent on migration, and has been unpredictable in recent years
There are consistently fewer births than deaths in Herefordshire each year; in the latest year (2024-25) there were around 1,400 births compared to 2,400 deaths. This means that without net migration into the county the total population would fall.
Births have been falling since 2018, reflecting the continued decline in fertility rates seen nationally. However, the ageing population structure means that numbers of deaths have been rising since 2014-15.
Projections based only on recent trends in births, deaths and migration would see a growth of fewer than 800 people a year
Understanding future population growth and changing age structure is important for informing resource allocation and planning.
ONS’ 2022-based population projections suggest that Herefordshire's population will continue to grow over the next decade, with an overall increase of around 4% between 2025 and 2035. The projections also indicate an ageing population, with growth concentrated in older age groups.
These projections are based on population estimates available at mid-2022 and therefore do not reflect subsequent revisions to population estimates or more recent migration trends.
Population ageing is expected to increase pressures on the workforce and services
Within this projected growth to 2035, the ONS 2022-based population projections suggest that the number of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase by around 23% between 2025 and 2035, while the working-age population (aged 16 to 64) is expected to remain broadly stable. In contrast, the number of children and young people (aged under 16) is projected to decline by around 11%.
New housing development targets mean that future population growth is currently unknown
These projections give an understanding of the potential future size of the population, based on recent trends in births, deaths and migration. It is important to note that these figures represent a baseline scenario; i.e. they do not account for future shifts in government or local policies, such as housing development, economic changes or other factors that could influence demographic behaviour.
In December 2024, The UK government implemented reforms to the planning system, which could see Herefordshire's housing target increase to 27,250 new dwellings between 2021 and 2041 (around 1,400 per annum). The likely impact of this on population growth has yet to be modelled.